Interactive Investor

Evolving the Human Screen

Richard Beddard
Publish date: Mon, 25 Jun 2012, 09:28 AM

The reasons I gave for starting the Human Screen over a week ago sound so calculating. Actually it was a gut feeling that inspired me to investigate every UK listed company (however briefly).

Yes, I’m disillusioned with screens that pick out the same old names, and yes often those names don’t deserve to be in the screen, they’re there because of some flaw, some problem, that a screen can’t measure. And yes, you can’t always take statistics at face value.

But all of those things were symptoms that I wasn’t learning anything. The screens were limiting. I needed to turn over more rocks.

Most of the companies unveiled by the Human Screen are new to me and it’s thrilling to produce a verdict in an hour or two, albeit an interim one because the screen is just the first stage in deciding which companies join the Thrifty 30.

Wexboy welcomed me to his world a week ago:

Good luck ' you will definitely find just as good a selection (and probably better) of stocks this way, and no matter how much you know now, you'll know a hell of a lot more in a year's time…

…And it's never a chore. In fact, I had to give up on reading annual reports in bed ' too exciting, I couldn't sleep..!

But I was sceptical I’d enjoy the millstone, and doubtful I’d ever take an annual report to bed (I wouldn’t get past the first paragraph, and laptops in bed? No thanks). 

I’m falling behind, the Human Screen is interfering with other work, but Wexboy was right. It isn’t a chore. I realised when I woke up at 5.40 on Thursday morning, and had screened May Gurney by breakfast. I’m addicted.

This is how the human screen is developing:

The Human Screen is evolving, he hopes to get insight into a wide range of UK companies soon after they have published their full-year results.

The Human Screen favours companies that he feels he can understand. He generally avoids:

  1. recent listings
  2. regulated businesses like water companies
  3. other investors (investment companies)
  4. very large and complicated businesses
  5. companies whose fortunes are primarily decided by long cycles in commodity prices like land, resources dug out of land, and ships that carry those resources.

Although he may consider such companies from time to time.

The Human Screen calculates the financial statistics from the latest full-year results. He describes what the company does, and what it has done by scrutinising its website, earlier annual reports, and historical data on Stockopedia, and aims to write a more objective summary of a company’s financial position and performance than is traditionally found at the beginning of results announcements.

Once he knows what a company does, and how it has performed, he decides how to value it, conscious that he may need to revise his conclusions because he only took an hour or two to come to them, and full-year results announcements often omit information about leases, notes, ownership and other significant factors that will be revealed in the company’s annual report.

The Human Screen grades each company he reviews:

^HS- (not interested)

^HS+ (worth watching for improvement in fundamentals/price)

^HS++ (currently being considered for inclusion in the Thrifty 30)

He publishes his output here.

By writing in the third person he feels he can be more objective, but he’s human, so he’s biased, and makes mistakes. He promises to admit to biases and mistakes, when he’s aware of them.

The Human Screen is an adaptive learner, he will get better.

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*The Human Screen is taking a breather for a couple of days while he writes a feature on income investing for Money Observer magazine.

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