Did I miss the resurgence in housebuilders? I’ve yet to arrive at the party, but Galliford Try was first through the door and helped pin pineapple chunks on cocktail sticks.
As reported in the company’s full year results, in September 2009 Galliford Try raised over ''125m in a rights issue to double the size of its newly unified housebuilding division by 2012 and deliver 3,000 units a year, ''60m in profit and a significant increase in profitability.
This year, i.e. in 2012, it delivered over 3,000 completions, ''63m profit and the promised improvement in return on capital, albeit in comparison to a very bad year.
Triumphalism isn’t an attractive quality in management spiel (and the investors deserve a pat on the back too), but this was a ballsy strategy. Turnover at other housebuilders had collapsed in 2008 and 2009 and although prices have remained remarkably sticky, that didn’t seem likely as we faced the next Great Depression.
As well as showing ''lan, the strategy may also have given Galliford Try a cost advantage. It acquired 80% of its land bank after July 2008, possibly at better prices than rivals.
The company thinks it can increase revenues and improve margins in coming years but they’re already impressive compared to Galliford Try’s construction division, which brought in more revenue but less profit.
In 2012, housebuilding operating profit more than doubled on revenues up more than a third, giving a profit margin just shy of 12%. Meanwhile construction, mostly for the public sector and regulated utilities, managed 2% on slightly reduced turnover and operating profit.
The group, therefore, wasn’t that profitable in 2012. It earned a 6% return on tangible assets of very approximately ''1,200m. Taking that as a conservative estimate of returns in a typical year in future, an investor would have to include the value of any debt in his purchase price and pay 40% less than the value of tangible assets to earn a 10% earnings yield. That’s about ''800m. Since Galliford Try’s market capitalisation is ''600m and it had more cash than debt at the year end, it seems possible.
Galliford Try’s housebuilding brand is Linden Homes. The sales guff emphasises the quality and individuality of each home, most of them in the south east. The nearest development to me is at Longstanton, close enough to scuttlebutt.
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