Helen Wright of the Girls Schools Association complains that programmes such as the X Factor are contributing to a 'moral abyss'. I fear that they might also have unpleasant economic effects.

What I mean is that the X Factor, along with other things such as the massive pay for top footballers and for celebrities such as Katie Price, tempts young people towards winner-take-all careers and away from careers where pay-offs are more certain and less skewed. This encourages them to over-invest in football and singing skills and the pursuit of celebrity and to under-invest in academic work.

This preference is not necessarily irrational. In simple expected utility terms, a 1% chance of getting ''2m a year is equal to a 50% chance of getting ''40,000. Add to this the greater disutility of jobs with the latter salaries - plus the fact they won't buy you a house - it's easy to see why people might prefer the 1% chance.

However, this preference might be exacerbated by three less rational biases:

- Role model effects. Role models matter because they play upon the availability heuristic. If we see someone like us doing something, we believe that there's a chance we can do it as well. The problem is that if you're from a poor inner-city, you'll probably see more pop stars, footballers and reality show micro-celebs like you than you'll see middle-class professionals. This will bias you towards the former careers and away from the latter.

- Overconfidence. We often over-rate our chances of success. People become pop singers thinking they'll sell millions, not that they'll be embittered club singers scuffling for a ''100 gig - even though the odds point to the latter.

- Probability misperception. We over-estimate the likelihood of low probabilities (pdf), which is why we buy (pdf) lottery tickets.

What's more, we know from other work that, especially where 'superstar' markets exist, there is at least a possibility of a misallocation of labour; this sort of thing likes behind the decades-old complaints that the City diverts talent away from other occupations such as science or manufacturing.

All of which makes me fear that the X Factor might be contributing to what might be a serious problem, insofar as some young people do neglect their school work in favour of chasing dreams.