Here's a glorious example of the media's bubblethink: the Guardian's political reporters describe Osborne's stewardship of the economy as the Tories "strongest card."

Let's just remind ourselves of the facts. Back in June 2010 the OBR forecast (pdf) that real GDP would grow by a cumulative 8.2% in between 2010 and 2013. In fact, it grew by only 3.1%. Partly because of this, the deficit is much larger now than expected. In 2010, the OBR forecast that PSNB in 2014-15 would be £37bn, or 2.1% of GDP. It now expects it to be £83.9bn, or 5.5% of GDP.

This poses the question: how can such failure be regarded by the Bubble as success? Here are five possibilities:

1. The peak-end rule. Daniel Kahneman has shown (pdf) that our memory of events is distorted by how they end, so that great pain followed by discomfort is regarded more favourably than pain alone, even if the former episode goes on for longer. The fact that the economy is now growing therefore leads us to under-estimate the pain of the stagnation of 2011-12 - just as our relief at finally getting home causes us to overlook the fact that the cab-driver took us on a two-hour detour.

2. Luck. The collapse of productivity growth means that the modest growth we've seen has translated into surprisingly strong jobs growth, for which Osborne is (wrongly) getting credit. In fact, if productivity had grown at a normalish rate in recent years, unemployment would have hit a record high. I doubt if Osborne would be regarded as a success in that case.

3. Risk aversion and status quo bias. People prefer the devil they know - and Osborne's stewardship is better known than Labour's policies.

4. False excuses. The coalition has tried to blame the euro area's weakness for our weak growth. This, though, won't wash; a policy that works only if everything goes OK is no policy at all, given that surprises are inevitable.

5. Managerialist machismo. If you use the language of "tough choices" and "prudence", some people will take you at your word. As Cameron Anderson and Sebastien Brion have shown, overconfident people who give off competence cues are wrongly seen by others as having genuine competence.

Whatever the reason, the fact is that it is only within the groupthink bubble that Osborne's macroeconomic policies can possibly be regarded as a success.