Stumbling and Mumbling

Fiscal conservatism, economic radicalism

chris dillow
Publish date: Wed, 19 Jul 2023, 01:19 PM
chris dillow
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An extremist, not a fanatic

Sir Keir Starmer has ruled out significant rises in public spending under a Labour government. He's partly right. What his supporters and many critics fail to appreciate, however, is that a tight fiscal stance is wholly consistent with some very left-wing policies.

First, why is he partly right?

The answer has nothing to do with "iron-clad fiscal rules". Such talk is merely to appease the nonces, imbeciles and billionaires' gimps in the media.

Instead, Labour's problem is that we are close to effective full employment; certainly, there are very few doctors or builders out of work. This means that any increase in public spending in excess of taxes would be potentially inflationary and would therefore (given the current inflation target) lead to the higher mortgage rates Sir Keir warns us of. Starmer

Just as Blairites fail to see that it's not 1997 any more, so some of Starmer's critics fail to see that it's not 2010 any more. There aren't the unemployed real resources to permit a significant fiscal expansion.

This does not, however, justify sticking with every detail of the Tories' spending plans such as the two child benefit cap. From an economic point of view, increased public spending is perfectly acceptable if it is matched by taxes which would offset the boost to aggregate demand. Sticking with the Tories' plans might be a coherent media strategy, but it is not an economic necessity.

Rigid fiscal discipline, however, by no means rules out radical policies. Here are a few Labour could follow:

Economic democracy.

It's no accident that our 15-year long stagnation in productivity and real wages followed rising inequality, because there are many channels through which inequality can depress output. Fixing this requires institutional change. As Joe Guinan and Martin O'Neill say:

The institutional arrangements at the heart of today's British capitalism - concentrated private ownership, corporate dominance, and the overweening might of London-based finance capital - together form a powerful engine for the extraction of value and its distribution upwards. It is this basic institutional design that drives the outcomes we are seeing in terms of crumbling public infrastructure, social atomisation, environmental degradation, and a widespread sense of popular disempowerment.

Part of the solution here involves tougher regulation and tax reform, such as abolishing the carried interest anomaly - a fiscal tightening Labour should approve.

Another part requires the encouragement of more worker democracy (pdf), simply because we have evidence that this would raise productivity. As Virginie Pérotin puts it:

Worker cooperatives are more productive than conventional businesses, with staff working "better and smarter" and production organised more efficiently.

This could be done by - for example - using central and local government procurement to favour worker-owned companies or social enterprises; giving workers first refusal when a business is sold; encouraging lenders to better support coops (assuming that a National Investment Bank is off the agenda for wrong-headed fiscal reasons); or giving tax breaks to employee ownership schemes.

Tougher regulation.

Beefing up competition policy doesn't require more public spending. Nor does an attack upon regulatory capture: the revolving door between Ofwat and water companies' management shows that the former does a poor job of keeping the latter in its place.

We don't necessarily need nationalization to address this problem. We could convert water companies into franchises which bid for time-limited contracts to supply water, run sewage networks and so on.

Alternatively, the government could simply impose price caps itself on utilities rather than have captured regulators do so. The theory of the second-best shows us that where there is a market failure (such as a natural monopoly) another market "distortion" can be efficient.

Tax and benefit reform.

Taxes and benefits both need to be simplified. Reducing the conditions attached to Universal Credit, for example, would be a small step towards a basic income and would actually be "fiscally responsible" by cutting the number of administrators and work coaches.

And the goal of tax reform should be to shift towards taxing (pdf) inheritances and land rather than incomes - starting perhaps with a commercial land tax.

A maximum wage.

This is typically justified in terms of fairness, to stop executives earning hundreds of times more than their employees.

There is, however, a case for such a limit in terms of efficiency.

For one thing, big inequality can reduce an organization's efficiency as middle management spend their efforts on office politics or looking for the next job; or as they look to highly-paid bosses to give the lead rather than taking their own initiative.

Against this, you might argue that such a maximum would reduce the supply of talented bosses even more than it is currently restricted. This, however, could be a good thing: if it encourages the break-up of large firms it would decrease monopoly power.
If the maximum does not apply to companies where the CEO has a large ownership stake, it would have another advantage. It would encourage CEOs to set up their own companies. In this way, we'd get an increase in the number of talented entrepreneurs.

Now, I've not gone into detail on these because, to paraphrase Marx, there's no point writing recipes when you don't have a kitchen. Instead, I'm just saying that Labour could in principle be economically very radical even whilst having a tight fiscal policy and ruling out nationalization.

There's a strand of social democracy - I'm thinking of Polly Toynbee - which see politics largely through a tax-and-spend lens and which is therefore disappointed by fiscal restraint. Such a social democracy however works only if capitalism is healthy so that economic growth will deliver taxes. But capitalism is not healthy. We need radical supply-side measures to boost productivity.

You'll object here that the policies I've outlined are neither "practical" nor "credible".

And that's the point. Although these policies might well boost economic growth (and I've not mentioned rejoining the single market) whilst reducing inequality Labour is not offering them. Which suggests that its talk of fiscal discipline is not merely an economic policy. It is instead part of a wider message - of placating the right by showing that it is no threat to inequality and extractive capitalism. Labour is capital's second XI - and the second XI of the most backward and regressive parts of capital at that.

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